Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will in the end lose but each side has has something to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
